Three years ago, Ben Stokes took on the role of England’s Test captain, followed shortly by Brendon McCullum’s arrival as head coach. Their relative lack of experience may have contributed to the bold and unconventional strategies they have implemented since then.

Under their leadership, a notable portion of the players introduced into the squad were relatively inexperienced, with many boasting fewer than 25 first-class matches at the time of their inclusion. Some players, like Rehan Ahmed and Shoaib Bashir, had hardly any game time under their belts.

Further fresh selections could soon emerge, such as Sonny Baker, the promising young Hampshire fast bowler, who, despite only playing two County Championship matches, is being considered for the Zimbabwe Test later this month, along with potential inclusion for the winter’s Ashes series. Similarly, Ben McKinney, an opener from Durham, is gaining attention.

There’s a growing consensus that intuitive selection methods may have overtaken traditional metrics such as runs and wickets. For instance, Ben Stokes favored Josh Hull last summer primarily for his height as a left-armer, despite Hull’s modest championship statistics of 11 wickets at an average of 84.54.

Jacob Bethell was entrusted with the No. 3 batting position in England’s recent series in New Zealand, having never achieved a first-class century, yet his performance was compelling enough that his absence at the IPL might only allow Ollie Pope to retain his place against Zimbabwe. Bethell has been on the bench for the Royal Challengers Bangalore but is not expected to return before the tournament concludes.

The selection strategy finalized by Rob Key, the director of cricket, works alongside Stokes and McCullum, leaving some experts puzzled due to overlooked players in form and continued trust in those underperforming.

However, there is a considerable amount of strategy and analytical rigor fueling the decisions made by Key’s team, thanks to the England and Wales Cricket Board’s (ECB) advanced data analytics department, which employs innovative tools like the iHawk system launched in 2023, capable of tracking every ball bowled in senior domestic cricket—an advance that no other nation possesses.

Data analytics plays a critical role in identifying players who will be assessed by England scouts and full-time selector Luke Wright before selections. Notably, the players’ qualifications are presented to the captain and coach only if deemed relevant to the specific assignment. Stafford Murray, head of analytics at the ECB, refers to this as “amplifying the philosophy already present in the dressing room.”

An intriguing and significant aspect of the analytical framework employed by England is the use of “impact data,” which seeks to measure how individual performances affect the overall match outcome. This means that even a player whose statistics might not be impressive may still have contributed to winning a game.

If Zak Crawley remains as opener, expected to do so despite a disappointing tally of just 52 runs over six innings in New Zealand, it could likely be attributed to this “impact data.” Crawley has previously made substantial contributions to several Test match victories, with standout performances against India’s and Australia’s teams, who are set to be their key rivals this year.

In his last county match, Crawley scored an unbeaten 54 over nearly three hours, in a match where Kent struggled, which was of greater value to his team than the score suggests.

The prominence of analytical data in England’s selection process is evident through its emphasis on unconventional choices. Data analysis eliminates emotional biases, disregarding the instinct for caution, and primarily focuses on factual evidence which, if persuasive, can sway decisions.

This methodology partly explains the selections of Bashir and Tom Hartley for last year’s Test tour to India based on their height and high release points (2.35 meters), factors which analytic evidence indicated were significant under Indian conditions.

Likewise, Josh Tongue’s initial selection in 2023 was attributable to his ability to sustain pace throughout lengthy spells—an attribute that many county bowlers struggled to meet. Following a recovery from injury, Tongue is poised for a comeback, with Key noting the significant improvements in his fitness and strength.

Since the ECB implemented a more data-driven approach to player selection in 2018, there has been a clear trend towards choosing younger, less experienced players.

This strategy has not been without its challenges; for example, planning for the Australian series started early in 2024, leading to Jimmy Anderson’s retirement, as it was deemed his age (43) would pose a disadvantage on that tour. Murray also hinted that some of their selections might seem unconventional but are formed with the future Ashes series in mind.

Though McCullum appeared more supportive of maintaining established players, he advocated for merit-based selections. Unexpectedly, the approach to winning in Australia has subtly evolved. Previously, there was a belief that the bowling lineup had to consist solely of fast bowlers exceeding 86-90mph, but now they acknowledge a need for a diverse attack.

Recent Australian pitches have favored seam movement, as evidenced by Scott Boland’s success—showing that even bowlers who aren’t exceptionally fast have thrived, while spin has been less potent. Wright expressed confidence that players like Sam Cook and Chris Woakes will be crucial in the Australian context, arguably representing a different type of pace compared to Anderson.

Cook’s anticipated debut against Zimbabwe comes with several players unavailable due to injury—Mark Wood, Olly Stone, and Brydon Carse are all sidelined, as is Chris Woakes with an ankle issue, while Jofra Archer is competing in the IPL. Cook, with 88 first-class matches under his belt, represents a more traditional choice but is still youthful at 27 and can contribute for years to come if he performs well.

Baker, who shares a comparable build but offers genuine pace, has showcased his capability to swing the ball, prompting significant interest from the cricketing community in a short timeframe.

England’s Test squad could potentially feature up to five seam bowlers under the age of 28: Gus Atkinson, Tongue, Cook, Matthew Potts, and Baker. While this would be an unusual choice, it aligns perfectly with the innovative philosophies of Stokes and McCullum.